This round of global inflation, why is not over yet

 This round of global inflation, why not pass
resources dual pressure of the attack, this time may be the real test.
U.S. financial tsunami, the world is a mess. Most analysts believe that with the deepening global economic recession, inflation is over.
in my opinion, too early.
are different in the past, the past inflation or the means of production, or livelihood, is in short supply and therefore increase investment, expand production capacity, supply up, inflation down naturally.
but this is completely different , is the tight demand for resources.
what propped up the demand for resources? is capacity. Of course the dollar is behind the junk, a stimulation of the housing bubble and the resulting production of domestic breeding of strong consumer demand, two emerging market economies to stimulate the rapid expansion of production capacity.
why the dollar can continue to super-fat? Is it because the finished goods prices do not rise, inflation is not high. This has become a rate cut, Greenspan continued the expansion of the implementation of monetary policy is best reasons.
but a tango, you have to see about the other side, emerging-market price of systematic distortion of most (popular government regulation and subsidies). In China, due to master all levels of government monopoly of economic growth Almost all of the necessary elements and resources, so as long as they wish, they can, in theory, and resources by the price factor to a minimum in the world to attract the most investment. So we see that in a per capita resources far below the world average level of countries, there are ultra-low energy prices in China, low water price, low environmental standards, low land prices (and sometimes give away), super tax benefits, over low labor standards. With the 2001, China joined the WTO, so that once an economy has been thrown to the overall trend of economic globalization, the cause of global capital, and even the industry chain of mobile elements is bound to be unprecedented. We find in history not such a huge economy, the manufacturing sector such expansion. In the distorted price system, the company's capacity expansion has been pushed to the border before it was suspended.
case, a broken housing bubble, the U.S. recession, global demand fell suddenly becomes surplus production capacity. In the end, though demand fell, but production had to continue in the short term, do not continue to mean that previous investments are failed to be implemented, means that business failures (blast furnace steel frame up, can stop you), in this sense, the demand for resources capacity is inertia, there is rigidity. five or six years after the rapid expansion of global production resources to bear in the formation of difficult to change once the pattern of demand. To change the adjustment of the economy is of tragic , the company going bankrupt, a lot of capacity to be cleaned, it seems that emerging markets seems to be able to escape this process.
most analysts simply believe that the U.S. demand declining, commodity market bubble will burst, energy prices will be like the early 80s U.S. recession, a fall in the end. The judge is problematic logic.
Why energy prices have not dropped to the real time?
today's world, energy consumption is actually two : China, U.S. consumption and production in emerging markets. Since last August the outbreak of the subprime, commodity price inflation, the first half of this year. in just 10 months, may I ask, emerging markets can be cleansed, how much capacity? businesses have closed, how much? so, resource requirements, and substantial decline in the number?
enterprises in the first round of the surge in energy prices, have resisted, production can be retained. prices fall, the pressure to reduce business costs, and still alive, but to ? history, has never been the cost of production is the pressure drop in the state of being cleaned. China and India and other emerging market factor is still the market price of goods continued to drop resistance.
Similarly, the absolute amount of energy consumption, the largest American it is impossible to change in the prices the way of life.
In short, the resources, . When the emerging markets in the resources and markets under the dual pressures of the attack, companies going bankrupt, oil prices soared when the Americans had to shrink clothes in the diet, the resources to really come short of the bull market.
a basic conclusion: the present States efforts to save the economy far from the beginning of economic recovery is only postponed the climax of this round of economic adjustment time. And of course, depend on the process to achieve U.S. policy.
the U.S. government to spend trillions of dollars finally determined Public efforts to rush to the rescue of financial crisis, can only be weakened dollar, pushing up inflation. In theory, financial aid can be resolved by printing money, it can be contracted expenditure to resolve. But the U.S. dollar in the international monetary system monopoly , as long as the selling point of several major central banks, a chain reaction triggered by the collapse of U.S. dollar could trigger, who can not stand the consequences. If you can not sell, then the natural choice of game is to consciously safeguard the dollar balance on this edge. means the United States can continue to be the financial crisis through the monetary losses caused to transfer, and this move will only lead to dollar depreciation of the dollar will not collapse.
proved to be short-sighted many market analysts, before the two rooms was taken over, most analysts think the U.S. has passed the worst period of the dollar strengthening trend of a foregone conclusion. It now appears that as long as the financial risks are not eliminated, the dollar is difficult even to stand up.
resources tight demand br>